Foresight Forensics: Breaking the Rules Sep 28, 2021 By Jamais Cascio The process of creating forecasts, especially scenario-based forecasts, is simultaneously creative and structured. On the one hand, you want the scenario to engage the reader, provoking them into new perspectives on an issue. On the other, you want the forecast to be grounded in plausibility. This balance can be tricky, and there are pitfalls that can be easy to stumble into. I wrote a quick list of those pitfalls back in 2012, and later expanded it into a talk…
